U.S. and Euroland Manufacturing PMIs
February 1, 2013
The differential between the U.S. and Ezone factory purchasing manager indices widened 1.1 points in January to a 3-month high. Euroland’s index advanced 1.8 points to 47.9, representing the smallest rate of contraction since last February. But that improvement was exceeded by the U.S. index that climbed 2.9 points to 53.1. On a monthly average basis, the euro has appreciated against the dollar in five of the past six months and by a dime in total.
The improved U.S. report was led by increases of 3.6 points in new business and by 2.1 points in jobs. Production and inflation also posted faster rates of expansion.
Most of the reports from Ezone members remained below 50, connoting continuing contraction. The exceptions were the Netherland and Ireland with readings of 50.2 and 50.3. Germany’s 49.8 score was just shy of the no-change threshold and 3.8 points better than December’s reading. Odds look very good that German GDP will advance in the current quarter after contracting in 4Q12. The biggest disappointment was France, whose PMI fell by 1.7 points to 42.9 and where new business fell at the fastest pace since March 2009. At the third and fourth largest economies using the euro, Italy’s PMI climbed 1.1 points, while Spain’s index went up by 1.5 points. The Greek PMI remained extremely depressed at 41.7.
| Mfg PMIs | U.S. | Euroland | Spread | EUR/USD |
| January | 54.1 | 48.8 | +5.3 | 1.290 |
| February | 51.9 | 49.0 | +2.9 | 1.323 |
| March | 53.3 | 47.7 | +5.6 | 1.320 |
| April | 54.1 | 45.9 | +8.2 | 1.315 |
| May | 52.5 | 45.1 | +7.4 | 1.280 |
| June | 50.2 | 45.1 | +5.1 | 1.254 |
| July | 50.5 | 44.0 | +6.5 | 1.230 |
| August | 50.7 | 45.1 | +5.6 | 1.255 |
| September | 51.6 | 46.1 | +5.5 | 1.286 |
| October | 51.7 | 45.4 | +6.3 | 1.297 |
| November | 49.9 | 46.2 | +3.7 | 1.283 |
| December | 50.2 | 46.1 | +4.1 | 1.313 |
| January | 53.1 | 47.9 | +5.2 | 1.330 |
Copyright 2013, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
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