Archive for October 3rd, 2012

Central Bank Watch

ECB Preview

October 3, 2012

Most analysts, myself included, do not anticipate an interest rate cut this month.  After the September meeting of the Governing Council, the conditional and unlimited elements of the proposed OTM program were fleshed out.  Spain and Greece are balking at the required submission to macroeconomic reforms, yet the past month has seen investors give the […] More

Central Bank Watch

A Surprise Decision from the National Bank of Poland

October 3, 2012

Economists had been incorrectly predicting a rate cut this month by the Monetary Policy Council at Narodowy Bank, and a released statement made several points that are consistent with reducing rates.  Note was made that several other central banks eased in September.  Soft global activity promotes disinflation.  In Poland, industrial production, retail sales, the labor […] More

Central Bank Watch

Icelandic Monetary Policy Pause Nearly Over

October 3, 2012

The 5.75% seven-day collateralized lending rate was left unchanged after the Monetary Policy Committee met at the Central Bank of Iceland (Sedlabanki), but a released statement warned, “in the absence of changes in the outlook for inflation and the economic recovery, it is likely that further interest rate increases will be needed in the near […] More

Deeper Analysis

U.S.-Minus-Ezone Non-Manufacturing PMI Advantage Widened 2.5 Points Last Month

October 3, 2012

The U.S. purchasing managers index climbed 1.4 points to a six-month high in September, whereas Euroland’s reading dropped below the October 2011 trough to a 38-month low of 46.1.  The 9-point differential between those indices was the widest spread in over two years.  The manufacturing PMI spread had improved less sharply to a width of […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

More PMI Reports and a Monster Australian Trade Deficit

October 3, 2012

The dollar has gained 0.5% against the kiwi and 0.3% versus the Australian dollar.  Other dollar pairs are pretty stable.  The greenback is unchanged against the euro and yuan, up 0.2% relative to the loonie, and 0.1% firmer against the yen, Swissie and sterling. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.5%, and Chinese markets remained closed in continuing […] More

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