Central Bank Watch
Unchanged Monetary Policy in Malaysia
January 31, 2012
It’s been already 8 months since the last of four Malaysian post-Great Recession interest rate hikes. The Monetary Policy Committee at Bank Negara Malaysia again left its overnight policy benchmark at 3.0%. The committee’s next two meetings are scheduled for March 9 and May 3. A statement released today after the first meeting of 2012 […] More
Deeper Analysis
January in Figures
January 31, 2012
January saw gold prices soar more than 11% and the dollar fall across the Board. Oil prices hovered around both sides of $100 per barrel and both opened and closed below that barrier. Great Britain and Switzerland did not partake as fully as some other countries in the generally superlative early 2012 performance of share […] More
Deeper Analysis
Some Downbeat North American Data
January 31, 2012
Canadian real GDP edged 0.1% lower in November. This compares adversely with analyst forecasts of a 0.2-0.3% increase and left output in November only 0.7% above that in August expressed at an annualized rate. Over the previous three months from May to August, GDP had advanced 4.4% annualized, so a rapid deceleration of economic momentum […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Month-end Data Deluge and Better Market Tone
January 31, 2012
Riskier assets were better bid on the final day of January. Stocks are mostly higher. The dollar is down. Commodities and bond yields rose. The dollar has fallen 1.2% against the kiwi, 0.7% relative to the Aussie dollar, 0.5% against sterling, the euro, yuan and Swiss franc, and 0.6% versus the loonie. The euro touched […] More
Central Bank Watch
An Eighth Interest Rate Hike for Colombia
January 30, 2012
Analysts were not expecting another monetary tightening until next month, but the 7-person Monetary Board of the Central Bank of Colombia just announced a 25-basis point increase of its overnight benchmark rate to 5.0%. This was the eighth such increase since February 2011 and the first one since November 25. A statement observes that on-year […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Markets in an Unsettled State of Mind
January 30, 2012
Two developments have not happened that were presumed likely by this point, and the appetite for risk has fallen. EU leaders are meeting in Brussels with the intent of hammering out details for enforceable fiscal discipline and an enlarged bailout fund. China reopened after a week-long holiday closure, but monetary policy there was not eased […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
January 27, 2012
The week that binds January and February, like others that bridge adjacent months, has a crowded data release calendar plus such key events as the Florida primary, an EU leaders summit in Brussels, and testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke before the House Budget Committee. It is hoped that a Greek personal sector involvement deal will […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Significant and Two-Sided Currency Market Risk
January 27, 2012
Since the start of the financial crisis in 2007, analysts have hedged forecasts of growth and inflation with the caveat that extraordinarily high uncertainty creates the potential for outcomes both well above or well below baseline predicted paths. An analogous truth should hold for key currency pairs over the next month or two. Investors late […] More
Deeper Analysis
A Distressful U.S. GDP Report
January 27, 2012
Real GDP advanced 2.8% last quarter annualized (saar) but only 0.8% factoring out the boost from inventory accumulation. GDP was 1.6% higher than in 4Q10 and posted five-year expansion of merely 0.5% per annum between 2006 and 2011. Nominal GDP rose just 3.2% saar last quarter, down from 4.4% in the third quarter. The GDP […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Still Watching Greece and Waiting for U.S. GDP Data
January 27, 2012
The dollar has softened overnight by 0.6% versus the yen, 0.5% against the Australian dollar, 0.4% versus the kiwi, 0.3% relative to the euro, and 0.2% against the loonie, Swissie, and sterling. The Chinese market remained closed one more day for the Lunar New Year holiday but will reopen on Monday. Stocks in the Pacific […] More
