Deeper Analysis
Yearend Seasonality of the Dollar
December 15, 2011
This note updates a posting I screened on these pages one year ago, which documented a tendency for the dollar to ease between mid-December and yearend against the major currency of Europe. A similar pattern cannot be observed in dollar/yen, nor is there a pronounced seasonal pattern in the first half of December. The linked […] More
Central Bank Watch
Swiss Economy Very Exposed to Euroland’s Problems
December 15, 2011
The Swissie rose against the euro today when Swiss National Bank officials did not change the currency’s minimum exchange rate of 1.2 per euro following a scheduled quarterly review of monetary policy. In a released statement, however, central bank officials re-promised to spare no effort enforcing the exchange policy introduced September 6, and they predicted […] More
Deeper Analysis
How the U.S. Current Account Was Funded in the Third Quarter
December 15, 2011
The U.S. balance of payments strengthened in 3Q. This improvement was not associated with a stronger average dollar than in 2Q, but it foreshadowed the appreciating trend being seen lately. The current account deficit narrowed 11.6% last quarter and to 2.9% of GDP from 3.3% in the second quarter. Private capital inflows, including the statistical […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Considerable Quantity of New Data to Absorb
December 15, 2011
At the quarterly monetary policy review, the Swiss National Bank did not adopt a weaker franc/euro ceiling rate but instead retained the 1.2000 level, which has been policy since September 6. The franc as a result is today’s strongest currency, rising 1.0% against the dollar. SNB officials also retained a zero-0.25% target range for three-month […] More
