Third-Quarter Improvement of Japanese Corporate Sentiment about as Expected
October 2, 2011
10,910 companies participated in the latest quarterly survey done by Japan’s central bank. In the table below which documents the evolution of results, abbreviations used in the first four columns of data stand for big manufacturers (Bm), big non-manufacturer (Bnm), small manufacturers (Sm) and small non-manufacturers (Smn). Where an “a” or no suffix is shown after the date, the figures are actual results. An “f” suffix after September 2011 and December 2011 are predicted results made three months before those respective dates. Thus, the bottom three rows are expected September 2011 results projected in the June 2011 survey (Sep 2011f), actual results of the September 2011 survey reported today (Sep 2011a), and what respondents in the latest survey think the results will be in the next survey to be taken in December 2011. The values in this table are diffusion indices representing the percent of companies where conditions are favorable minus the percent claiming conditions to be unfavorable and omitting any firms where conditions have been neutral. When the diffusion index is positive, there is more optimism than pessimism.
All four classifications were more optimistic or less pessimistic in September than June, but big manufacturers are the only companies expecting to be more optimistic in December than now. Planned investment among large firms for the current fiscal year ending in March 2012 was revised downward to 3.0% from 4.2% anticipated in the prior survey. In contrast, projected sales and profits were revised upward. Deflationary sentiment persists, albeit not quite to the same extent as before.
| Bm | Bnm | Sm | Snm | All | |
| Dec 1998 | -49 | -39 | -56 | -43 | |
| Dec 1999 | -17 | -19 | -32 | -28 | |
| Dec 2000 | 10 | -10 | -16 | -23 | |
| Dec 2001 | -38 | -22 | -49 | -39 | -40 |
| Dec 2002 | -9 | -16 | -33 | -36 | -28 |
| Dec 2003 | 11 | -9 | -13 | -28 | -15 |
| Dec 2004 | 22 | 11 | 5 | -14 | 1 |
| Dec 2005 | 21 | 17 | 7 | -17 | 5 |
| Dec 2006 | 25 | 22 | 12 | -4 | 10 |
| Dec 2007 | 19 | 16 | 2 | -12 | 2 |
| Mar 2008 | 11 | 12 | -6 | -15 | -4 |
| Jun 2008 | 5 | 10 | -10 | -20 | -7 |
| Sep 2008 | -3 | 1 | -17 | -24 | -14 |
| Dec 2008 | -24 | -9 | -29 | -29 | -24 |
| Mar 2009 | -58 | -31 | -57 | -42 | -46 |
| Jun 2009 | -48 | -29 | -57 | -44 | -45 |
| Sep 2009 | -33 | -24 | -52 | -39 | -38 |
| Dec 2009 | -25 | -21 | -41 | -34 | -31 |
| Mar 2010 | -14 | -14 | -30 | -31 | -24 |
| Jun 2010 | 1 | -5 | -18 | -26 | -15 |
| Sep 2010 | 8 | 2 | -14 | -21 | -10 |
| Dec 2010 | 5 | 1 | -12 | -22 | -11 |
| Mar 2011 | 6 | 3 | -10 | -19 | -9 |
| June 2011 | -9 | -5 | -21 | -26 | -18 |
| Sep 2011f | 2 | -2 | -15 | -29 | -15 |
| Sep 2011a | 2 | 1 | -11 | -19 | -9 |
| Dec 2011f | 4 | 1 | -12 | -22 | -11 |
Copyright Larry Greenberg 2011. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
Tags: Japanese Tankan
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