Central Bank Watch
Bank of Japan Counting on a Recovery — Eases No Further
May 20, 2011
The Bank of Japan decided by a 9-0 vote not to loosen further its already accommodative stance in spite of worse-than-forecast GDP data that showed an annualized contraction of 3.4% over the two quarters between 3Q10 and 1Q11. More significant negative growth is forecast for the present quarter, and 3Q11 may be suspect as well. […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Thank God It’s Friday and a Quiet One at That
May 20, 2011
Not to much is happening this Friday. No U.S. data releases are scheduled. The euro has dipped back under $1.43. The Bank of Japan made no further changes at this month’s Policy Board meeting despite a big drop in the latest all-industry index reading. French Finance Minister Legarde appears to be the front-runner to succeed […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank of Japan Preview
May 19, 2011
The Bank of Japan today and Tuesday held its fourth Policy Board meeting in the ten weeks since the devastating Sendai earthquake. On March 14, officials raised their asset purchases by JPY 5 trillion (about $400 billion) to JPY 40 trillion. On April 7, they broadened the range of eligible collateral for money market operations […] More
Deeper Analysis
Japanese, U.S. and Euro Area First-Quarter Growth
May 19, 2011
Japanese real GDP imploded 3.7% at an annualized rate last quarter, while U.S. real GDP advanced by 1.75%. Real GDP in Japan was 1.0% lower than a year earlier and 5.6% below its pre-recession peak. U.S. real GDP was 2.3% higher than in the first quarter of 2010 and 0.6% above the pre-recession level. The […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Now Official that Japan Relapsed into Recession
May 19, 2011
The dollar has risen 0.4% against the recession-laden yen but has otherwise lost 0.5% against the Canadian dollar, 0.4% relative to the euro, kiwi and Aussie dollar, and 0.2% against sterling. The yuan is steady. Investors showed greater interest in reacquiring risk after Strauss-Kahn resigned as Managing Director of the IMF. The dollar is up […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank of England Minutes and a Little Background History
May 18, 2011
When the Monetary Policy Committee last met on May 4-5, policymakers found the inflation outlook no clearer than before and voted in the same highly fractious pattern as they had at the previous three monthly meetings. Uncertainty is compounded by two conflicting forces. Cost-push inflation from raised indirect taxation, elevated commodity prices and previous sterling […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Near-Term Dollar Direction Unclear
May 18, 2011
The dollar is 0.1% softer than its Tuesday close at 1.4256 per euro. It had slumped from a 17-month high of $1.4941 on May 4 to a low of $1.4064 on May 13 before partly recovering this week, but traders are unsure whether the correction has paused or ended. One continuing cue is stock market […] More
Deeper Analysis
Since Bernanke’s Press Conference
May 17, 2011
The first post-FOMC press conference was held three weeks ago less a day, and minutes from that April 27 meeting will be released tomorrow. One of Chairman Bernanke’s assertions that day was that an end to the central bank’s second round of quantitative easing would be unlikely to impact long-term interest rates much, since it […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
U.K. Inflation Jumps Anew
May 17, 2011
The dollar recovered 1.2% overnight against the yen and 0.3% against the Swissy but is down by 0.3% against the pound and euro, 0.2% versus the Canadian dollar, and 0.1% relative to the Australian and New Zealand dollars. The yuan is unchanged. Stocks were steadier than they’ve been recently, climbing 0.7% in Australia, 0.5% in […] More
Central Bank Watch
Hungarian Monetary Council Retains a 6.0% Base Rate
May 16, 2011
As they had done at prior meetings on February 21, March 28 and April 18, policymakers at the Nemzeti Magyar Bank left their benchmark interest rate at 6.0%. The March and April decisions had been unanimous in spite of above-target inflation. Following a 300-basis point rate hike in October 2008, the base rate was reduced […] More
