Deeper Analysis
April in Figures
April 30, 2011
April was a volatile month. The dollar plunged across the board. Most stocks markets improved, and G7 ten-year sovereign debt yields fell. A rise in three-month euribor deposit rates as the ECB entered a tightening cycle put added strain on the peripheral members of Euroland, and their bond yields rose. Commodities soared. Impressive gains of […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
April 29, 2011
A number of European centers will be closed Monday for May Day. Then Japan closes Tuesday for Constitution Day, Wednesday for Greenery Day and Thursday for Children’s Day as the Golden Week holidays continue. It will be a fairly busy week nonetheless. Central bank meetings are planned for Australia, the Philippines, the ECB, the Bank […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
How Soon Might the Dollar Hit Bottom?
April 29, 2011
Answering the above question starts with Fed policy. At Wednesday’s press conference, Fed Chairman Bernanke showcased an impressive mastery of many policy issues and a blatant disregard for the weakening dollar that left financial market participants more convinced than ever that U.S. officials will take no action to stop its fall. The Chairman insisted that […] More
Central Bank Watch
Russia and Vietnam Get Tighter Monetary Policies
April 29, 2011
Russia and Vietnam have been coping with very elevated inflation even by the standards of mounting commodity-fueled price pressures found in most countries these day. Today, the State Bank of Vietnam lifted its seven-day refinancing rate to 14% from 13%, the fourth hike of a percentage point so far this year. Vietnam’s discount rate also […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Dollar Again Lower
April 29, 2011
The dollar has fallen 0.8% against the Swiss franc and by 0.4% versus the kiwi, 0.2% relative to the yen, yuan and euro and 0.1% against the Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, and sterling. The yuan is stronger than CNY 6.500 for the first time since 1993, reaching as far at 6.4892. President of the Swiss […] More
Deeper Analysis
U.S. GDP Release: Three Paradoxical Observations
April 28, 2011
After the worst recession since the 1930s, the recovery continues to be disappointing in strength. Over the first seven quarters of the current U.S. economic recovery, real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.8%. That’s better than the 2.0% pace over the first seven quarters of recovery in the previous business cycle but not […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank of Japan Policy Review
April 28, 2011
The Policy Board voted unanimously to retain a key rate target range of zero to 0.1% at a meeting lasting three hours and 26 minutes. This was expected. A significant easing, including quantitative easing, had been undertaken last month three days after the Sendai earthquake. The extent of easing surpasses the height of stimulus during […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Post-FOMC Drop of Dollar and Rise of Gold Extended
April 28, 2011
Gold prices advanced 1.0% overnight to $1531.70 per ounce and are 5.4% above the close of $1453.10 of April 12th. Oil prices are 0.2% lower at $112.60 per barrel. The dollar has fallen 0.5% against the yen, 0.3% relative to the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and euro, and 0.2% against sterling, Swiss franc and the […] More
Central Bank Watch
New Zealand’s Official Cash Rate Unchanged at 2.5%
April 27, 2011
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand released a statement leaving its benchmark interest rate unchanged as analysts had expected. Officials called New Zealand’s post-earthquake outlook still “very uncertain,” observing sharply weaker business sentiment, consumer confidence, and tourism inflows. While the household sector shows signs of bouncing back in much of the country, the stricken Christchurch […] More
Central Bank Watch
Act II: Well-Communicated and Useful Information at the Bernanke Press Conference
April 27, 2011
Bravo to the Fed for introducing press conferences! One generally doesn’t learn much from Bank of Japan press conferences, which are frequent affairs, and the ECB’s staged events are just that, opportunities to run through a checklist of points regardless of what’s asked. Although Chairman Bernanke did not give replies to each question that will […] More
