New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Swissy and Yen Up on Oil Crisis
February 24, 2011
Political chaos in the Middle East has spawned an hysterical oil market, with Brent topping $119.70 at one point and West Texas Intermediate eclipsing $103 amid forecasts of a potential spike above $200 per barrel. Reassurances from Saudi officials that 1 million barrels per day of Libyan production can be replenished by Saudi Arabia and […] More
Larry's Blog
Crude Oil Prices and U.S. CPI Inflation
February 23, 2011
Oil prices were volatile but ultimately trendless through the latter 1980s and the 1990s. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices averaged $19.37 from 1987 through 1998. Broken down into three-year sub-periods, the overage price of oil was $18.26 per barrel in in 1987-89, $22.18 in 1990-92, $18.03 in 1993-95 and $19.01 in 1996-98. There are 42 […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Dollar Down Despite Concern over Libya
February 23, 2011
Libya’s turmoil, where Qaddafi clings to power, should help the dollar in two ways: by spawning generalized flight to the safety of Treasury securities and by raising concern about Euroland’s troubled southern tier, which imports most of Libya’s oil exports. Nonetheless, the dollar fell overnight by 0.7% against sterling, 0.6% versus the euro, 0.5% against […] More
Deeper Analysis
Today’s North American Data
February 22, 2011
U.S. consumer confidence according to the Conference Board survey advanced 5.6 points to 70.4 in February and by 17.1 points over the first two months of this year. More confidence is being expressed about the labor market even though employment increased merely 36K in January and at a 56K per month rate over the past […] More
Deeper Analysis
New Zealand Earthquake
February 22, 2011
On the South Island near the city of Christchurch, a 6.3 earthquake has reportedly caused extensive damage and over 65 deaths. The region was hit by a 7.0 quake last September 4th that produced an estimated $5 billion of damages to infrastructure, residential and commercial property. New Zealand economic growth in 2010 was softer than […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Investors Unnerved by Middle East Unrest and Spiking Oil Prices
February 22, 2011
Stocks are sharply lower. The dollar, Swiss franc and yen are higher. Bond yields fell. In the Middle East, tensions continue to escalate in Libya where strongman Quaddafi seems to be losing the support of his military. Two Iranian naval ships went through the Suez Canal. The Security Council meets today to discuss recent Middle […] More
Central Bank Watch
Hungarian Monetary Policy Paused After Three Rate Increases
February 21, 2011
Following increases of Magyar Nemzeti Bank’s Base Rate by 25 basis points each on November 29, December 20, and January 24, such was left steady at 6.25% this month. 625 basis points of easing was provided in fourteen steps from November 2008 to April 2010. Real GDP is expected to expand in both 2011 and […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Geopolitical Tensions Boost Commodity Prices
February 21, 2011
North American markets will be closed today to commemorate President’s Day in the United States and Family Day in Canada. Wintry weather has returned to the Northeast. China too has caught the contagious bug of social unrest. President Hu urged tighter controls of the internet. High food costs, as in the middle east, have been […] More
Deeper Analysis
Paris Statement from G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors
February 19, 2011
After meeting on February 18th and 19th, the Group of Twenty finance ministers and central bank chiefs released a four-page statement that Assessed the global economy to be recovering unevenly and with continuing downside risks, Reflected China’s isolation in the debate over proper currency policy, Identified broad indicators – public debt, fiscal deficits, private savings […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
February 18, 2011
The two-day summit of G20 finance ministers and central bankers concludes Saturday. Minutes from meetings of the Bank of Japan Policy Board and the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee will be published next week, and a policy announcement will be made by the Magyar Nemzeti Bank in Hungary. U.S. markets will be shut on […] More
