U.S. Manufacturing Outperforming Euro Area By Widening Margin
February 1, 2011
Factory sectors in the United States and Europe each expanded solidly in January. In the table below, a reading of 50.0 represents a neutral figure. The higher a reading is above 50, the faster is the associated rate of growth in manufacturing. Euroland’s purchasing managers index printed at a nine-month high, and Britain’s reading of 62.0 was the best ever. The U.S. scored a 60.8, eclipsing last March’s 60.4 to its highest level since May 2004. Consequently, the U.S. minus Euroland differential widened by 2.1 points to +3.5, the widest spread March 2010. U.S. orders jumped 5.8 points, and jobs went up 2.8 points. The overall euro area index of activity edged only 0.2 points higher, as a 2.3-point drop in the French PMI to 54.9 mitigated improvements of 3.6 points in Ireland and 1.9 points in Italy. Inflation accelerated on both sides of the Atlantic. The prices component in the U.S. report leaped nine points to 81.5, while record high price readings were seen in both Euroland and Great Britain.
The euro traded on average at $1.356 last March when the United States last enjoyed an advantage over Euroland in manufacturing that was as wide as January’s. That’s similar to its current level. However, the dollar was strengthening then and would eventually crest at $1.1878 in early June. This time, the U.S. currency is in a softening trend that could feed America’s strong performance further in coming months.
Mf’g PMI’s | U.S. | Euroland | Spread | EUR/USD |
Feb 2008 | 48.8 | 52.3 | -3.5 | 1.475 |
March | 49.0 | 52.0 | -3.0 | 1.553 |
April | 48.6 | 50.7 | -2.1 | 1.574 |
May | 49.3 | 50.6 | -1.3 | 1.555 |
June | 49.5 | 49.2 | +0.3 | 1.557 |
July | 49.5 | 47.4 | +2.1 | 1.577 |
August | 49.3 | 47.6 | +1.7 | 1.497 |
September | 43.4 | 45.0 | -1.6 | 1.437 |
October | 38.7 | 41.1 | -2.4 | 1.331 |
November | 36.6 | 35.6 | +1.0 | 1.268 |
December | 32.9 | 33.9 | -1.0 | 1.351 |
Jan 2009 | 35.6 | 34.4 | +1.2 | 1.326 |
February | 35.7 | 33.5 | +2.2 | 1.303 |
March | 36.4 | 33.9 | +2.5 | 1.306 |
April | 40.4 | 36.8 | +3.2 | 1.318 |
May | 43.2 | 40.7 | +2.5 | 1.365 |
June | 45.3 | 42.6 | +2.7 | 1.401 |
July | 49.1 | 46.3 | +2.8 | 1.409 |
August | 52.8 | 48.2 | +4.6 | 1.426 |
September | 52.4 | 49.3 | +3.1 | 1.455 |
October | 55.2 | 50.7 | +4.5 | 1.489 |
November | 53.7 | 51.2 | +2.5 | 1.491 |
December | 54.9 | 51.6 | +3.3 | 1.459 |
Jan 2010 | 58.4 | 52.4 | +6.0 | 1.409 |
February | 57.1 | 54.2 | +2.9 | 1.368 |
March | 60.4 | 56.6 | +3.8 | 1.356 |
April | 59.6 | 57.6 | +2.0 | 1.342 |
May | 57.8 | 55.8 | +2.0 | 1.255 |
June | 55.3 | 55.6 | -0.3 | 1.220 |
July | 55.1 | 56.7 | -1.6 | 1.278 |
August | 55.2 | 55.1 | +0.1 | 1.288 |
September | 55.3 | 53.7 | -0.4 | 1.308 |
October | 56.9 | 54.6 | +2.3 | 1.389 |
November | 58.2 | 55.3 | +2.9 | 1.368 |
December | 58.5 | 57.1 | +1.4 | 1.323 |
Jan 2011 | 60.8 | 57.3 | +3.5 | 1.337 |
Copyright Larry Greenberg 2010. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.