Deeper Analysis
February in Figures
February 28, 2011
Very little net movement in either long- or short-term interest rates occurred during the four weeks of February. The dollar on balance performed even more weakly than in January, and stocks did better, preserving a long-established tendency for equities and the dollar to behave inversely. One currency that did worse than the U.S. dollar was […] More
Deeper Analysis
Stronger and Better-Balanced Activity in Canada
February 28, 2011
Canadian real GDP expanded 3.3% at an annualized pace last quarter, accelerating from annualized growth of 2.0% over the previous two quarters. GDP was 3.2% higher than in the final quarter of 2009 and recorded similar average growth in calendar 2010 of 3.1%. While conceding that the recovery was proceeding somewhat more rapidly than they […] More
Deeper Analysis
A Setback in Euroland’s Retail Sector
February 28, 2011
Retail purchasing manager survey readings revealed a significant setback in February. Only readings above 50 constitute expanding activity, and February’s score of 49.9 was 5.9 points less than the reading in October. Such breaks a string of three consecutive increases and three straight scores above 51. The end of a cash for auto clunkers program […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
End of February Data Releases
February 28, 2011
Monday’s tend to have fewer data releases than other days of the week but not when they coincide with the end of the month. Oil prices are steady and below $100 at $97.89 per barrel amid confidence that Gaddafi will be squeezed out of power. The dollar has lost 0.6% against the euro and 0.7% […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
February 25, 2011
Being the first week of a new month, a bunch of central bank meetings, purchasing manager surveys, and U.S. labor market indicators are planned for the week of March 4. The monetary policy announcements will be made in Australia, Canada, Brazil, Euroland, the Czech Republic, Indonesia, Poland and Mexico, plus the Fed Beige Book, which […] More
Central Bank Watch
Rate Raising Comes to Colombia Finally
February 25, 2011
The Colombian interest rate was raised today by 25 basis points in the first advance since July 2008. The benchmark central bank rate had been 3.0% since a 50-basis point cut on April 30, 2010 that culminated and 8-step, 700-basis point reduction beginning in December 2008. 600 bps of that drop was done in 2009. […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
A Murkier Currency Market Outlook Due to the Uncertain Fate of Oil Prices
February 25, 2011
A risk remains that oil and other commodity prices will remain extremely volatile in the period ahead. The market is trading on political news headlines and therefore intrinsically less stable than when markets march to the beat of economic data. At the high of $103.41 per barrel yesterday, oil prices had shot up 22.6% since […] More
Central Bank Watch
Russian Monetary Policy Tightened: Refi Rate and Reserve Requirement Both Raised
February 25, 2011
Bank Rossii today escalated its attack on inflation. Propelled mostly by higher food costs, the 12-month rate of CPI inflation had risen to 9.6% in January from 8.8% in December, 8.1% in November, 7.5% in October, 7.0% in September, 6.1% in August and 5.5% in July. The medium-term inflation goal is 7%. Central Bank officials […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Better Market Tone as Middle East Fear Ebbs
February 25, 2011
Stocks recovered 1.8% in Hong Kong and Singapore, 1.7% in Sri Lanka, 0.9% in Thailand, 0.7% in Japan, 0.6% in Australia and 0.4% in India. In Europe, equities climbed 1.2% in Paris, 0.5% in Frankfurt, and 0.2% in London. Ten-year sovereign debt yields rose three basis points in Germany, two bps in Britain and a […] More
Deeper Analysis
Japan’s Safe Haven Appeal
February 24, 2011
The yen’s advantage in times of geopolitical turmoil and rising oil prices is not intuitively obvious. Japan imports virtually all of its energy needs, and Middle Eastern hydrocarbon fuel comprises a big share of that purchase. Japanese economic activity is looking better but only in relation to late 2010 when such stumbled rather badly. Prime […] More
