December, 4Q10, and 2010 in Figures
January 3, 2011
December was a terrific month for equities and commodities but a poor month for the dollar and fixed-income securities. In spite of a 78-basis point rise of ten-year Treasury yields last quarter, such was still 54 basis points lower than a year earlier on December 31st. The dollar fell 9.8% of more in 2010 against the Swiss franc, Australian dollar, and Japanese yen. Declines were also recorded last year against the kiwi, yuan, and Canadian dollar, and many emerging market currencies. The euro and sterling performed even worse than the dollar. The dollar is the reigning reserve currency, a role once held by sterling, and the euro could have been a contender until major cracks in the European Economic and Monetary Union’s foundation were discovered in late 2009. The weakness of fiat reserve currencies in 2010, juxtaposed against a 29.5% leap in gold prices, constitutes a vote of no confidence in paper money, rather than a spike in inflation expectations. In broad historical terms, bond yields remain very depressed. They would not be so low if the central problem was fear of inflation.
| 10-Yr Yield | 12/31/10 | Chg vs End-Nov | Chg vs End-Sept | Chg v End-2009 |
| U.S. | 3.29% | +48 Basis Points | +78 Basis Points | -54 Basis Points |
| Germany | 2.96% | +29 | +68 | -43 |
| Japan | 1.12% | -7 | +18 | -18 |
| U.K. | 3.40% | +18 | +45 | -62 |
| Canada | 3.14% | +8 | +40 | -46 |
| Switzerland | 1.74% | +13 | +37 | -29 |
| 3-mo euros | Chg vs End-Nov | Chg vs End-Nov | Chg vs End-2009 | |
| U.S. | 0.30% | 0 Basis Points | +1 Basis Points | +5 Basis Points |
| Euroland | 0.95% | 0 | +10 | +29 |
| Japan | 0.19% | 0 | -3 | -9 |
| U.K. | 0.76% | +2 | +3 | -9 |
| Canada | 1.23% | +1 | -2 | +76 |
| Swiss | 0.17% | 0 | -1 | -8 |
| FX | Pct Chg in USD | Pct Chg in USD | Pct Chg in USD | |
| EUR/USD | 1.3377 | -2.9% | +1.9% | +7.0% |
| USD/JPY | 82.00 | +1.9% | -1.8% | -11.9% |
| USD/CHF | 0.9333 | -7.1% | -5.0% | -9.8% |
| GBP/USD | 1.5608 | -0.3% | +0.7% | +3.6% |
| AUD/USD | 1.0240 | -6.4% | -5.6% | -12.2% |
| NZD/USD | 0.7787 | -4.6% | -5.8% | -6.7% |
| USD/CAD | 0.9976 | -2.8% | -3.1% | -4.8% |
| USD/CNY | 6.5916 | -1.0% | -1.5% | -3.5% |
| Equities | Pct Change | Pct Change | Pct Change | |
| S&P 500 | 1258 | +6.5% | +10.3% | +12.8% |
| Nasdaq | 2693 | +6.2% | +12.0% | +16.9% |
| Djia | 11578 | +5.2% | +7.3% | +11.0% |
| Dax | 6914 | +3.4% | +11.0% | +16.1% |
| Nikkei | 10229 | +6.2% | +12.0% | +16.9% |
| Ftse | 5971 | +8.0% | +7.6% | +10.3% |
| Canada TSE | 13434 | +3.7% | +8.6% | +14.6% |
| Swiss SMI | 6436 | +2.0% | +2.2% | -1.7% |
| Commodities | Pct Change | Pct Change | Pct Change | |
| Oil, $ per brl | 91.38 | +9.2% | +14.3% | +15.1% |
| Gold, $ per oz | 1420.78 | +2.6% | +8.6% | +29.5% |
Copyright Larry Greenberg 2010. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
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