Archive for January 2011

Deeper Analysis

January in Figures

January 31, 2011

During January, the dollar fell against the euro and sterling, rose against the Swiss franc and Australian and New Zealand dollars and showed scant change against the yen, yuan, and Canadian dollars. Most stocks rose on balance, but the British Ftse dropped as a value-added tax hike aggravated inflationary pressures.  Sovereign bonds rose by more […] More

Larry's Blog

North African Dominos

January 31, 2011

Revolutions are fascinating to watch and so unpredictable.  All too often, whoever is most ruthless ends up commanding the top of the mountain when the dust finally settles.  The rallying cry of the French Revolution — life, liberty and equality — wound up with Napoleon and tragedy for Europe.  In Russia a century later, the […] More

Deeper Analysis

Upbeat North American Data

January 31, 2011

Canadian GDP calculated from the supply-side industrial level rose 0.4% in November, the best monthly advance since March.  GDP was also 3.0% higher than a year earlier.  Very robust monthly increases were posted in mining and oil extraction (1.3%), retail sales (1.4%), and wholesale turnover (1.5%).  This is a welcome turn of events following weaker-than-anticipated […] More

Central Bank Watch

Russian Reserve Requirement Lifted

January 31, 2011

Bank Rossii left its key refinancing rate at 7.75%, its level since June 2010.  The rate had been cut by 425 basis points during 2009 and a further 100 bps over the first five months of 2009.  With economic activity now expanding at about a 4% pace, accelerating inflation has moved to the forefront of […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Investors Watching North African Developments

January 31, 2011

Trading today has been calmer than on Friday.  News highlights from Egypt include About 150 feared dead in Egyptian unrest. Foreigners are scrambling to leave the country. A Suez Canal officials said traffic through the seaway has not been affected. Moody’s cut its rating on Egyptian debt to Ba2 from Ba1. Egypt’s stock market and […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week

January 28, 2011

Central banks in Australia, Euroland, the Czech Republic, Romania, Russia, Iceland, Indonesia and Mexico hold interest rate policy meetings in the week to February 4.  The ECB monthly Bulletin and Australian quarterly Monetary Policy Statement are being published.  A number of Asia markets including Singapore, Hong Kong and China will be closed Thursday to observe […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Forex Marking Time

January 28, 2011

Four weeks into the year, it remains unclear who will be the big currency market winners and losers of 2011 or how this year might shape up differently from the last one.   In 2010, the dollar appreciated 7.0% against the euro but declined by 12.2%, 11.9% and 9.8% against the Australian dollar, Japanese yen, and […] More

Deeper Analysis

U.S. GDP Growth

January 28, 2011

U.S. real GDP growth strengthened to 3.2% annualized (saar) last quarter from 2.6% in the third quarter and 1.7% in 2Q.  GDP was 2.8% higher than in the final quarter of 2009 versus a net rise of just 0.2% between 4Q08 and 4Q09.  Real final sales expanded by a robust 7.1% saar, with advances of […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Dollar Down Ahead of U.S. GDP and Employment Cost Reports

January 28, 2011

The dollar lost 0.6% against the yen overnight and is down 0.4% against the Australian dollar, 0.3% versus the kiwi and Swiss franc, and 0.1% against the euro.  The dollar is up 0.1% relative to the Canadian dollar and pound sterling but steady against the Chinese yuan. Share prices are mostly lower, with declines of […] More

Larry's Blog

Thoughts on U.S. Fiscal Policy

January 27, 2011

For three straight years, the federal deficit has hovered around 10% of GDP.  Without policy changes, long-term fiscal trends will be unsustainable, but crisis conditions do not exist at present.  The 3.44% ten-year Treasury yield is just 24 basis points above its average level since end-2009 and well below the means of 4.45% in the […] More

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