Central Bank Watch
Bank of Japan Tankan Survey Confirms More Confident Corporate Mood
March 31, 2010
The Bank of Japan quarterly survey of businesses, known as the Tankan, depicted significantly better conditions than three months ago. The readings were also higher than predicted in the December survey but in line with what analysts forecast recently. Big manufacturers and large nonmanufacturers had identical readings, showing improvements of 44 points and 17 points, […] More
Deeper Analysis
March and First Quarter in Figures
March 31, 2010
March was a weak month for the yen but a solid one for commodity-sensitive currencies. The travails of Greek bonds were not shared by British gilts or German bunds, which also outperformed North American fixed income securities. Short-term interest rates continued to be anchored by central bank accommodative policies and remain at historically low levels. […] More
Videos
Interview on CAD, Yen and Euro Outlooks
March 31, 2010
With the first calendar quarter drawing to a close today, ForexTV thought it an appropriate time to check out what I’m thinking about current conditions and future prospects regarding the yen and euro as well as commodity-sensitive currencies like the loonie. Watch my interview earlier this afternoon with Julie Sinha of ForexTV. Copyright Larry Greenberg […] More
Deeper Analysis
Fed Policy and U.S. Employment Growth
March 31, 2010
The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate to preserve low, steady, and predictable inflation but also to maximize employment. The Fed’s behavior regarding its key federal funds rate during the past ten years correlates extremely well with what was happening to jobs growth. Unfortunately, the only decent growth in non-farm payroll jobs was experienced over […] More
Deeper Analysis
Canadian GDP Growth Quickened at the Turn of the Year
March 31, 2010
The monthly supply-side index of Canadian real GDP rose 0.6% in January after back-to-back 0.5% gains in the final two months of 2009, led by increases of 2.9% in wholesale turnover, 1.9% in factory output, and 1.7% in construction. A 12-month increase in GDP of 1.3% understates the economy’s momentum since September. Over the past […] More
Central Bank Watch
Polish Central Bank Rate to Stay at 3.5%
March 31, 2010
The Monetary Council of the Narodowy Bank decided as expected to keep its seven-day reference rate at 3.5%, where such has been since mid-2009. Officials released a statement that predicted slower growth in 1Q10 than in 4Q09 and than had been assumed previously, citing recent setbacks, perhaps weather-related, in retail sales and construction activity. Inflation […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
European Currencies Stronger Despite Continuing Greek Debt Woes
March 31, 2010
The dollar weakened 0.6% against sterling and the Swissy and by 0.4% relative to the euro. The dollar strengthened 0.6% against the yen and to its highest level since the first week of 2010. Movements relative to commodity-sensitive currencies are mixed, with a drop of 0.4% against the loonie but gains of 0.3% and 0.2% […] More
Deeper Analysis
British Economic Growth Dissected
March 30, 2010
The Great Recession knocked the stuffing out of the British economy, depressing real GDP by 6.2% between the first quarter of 2008 and the third quarter of 2009. The U.K. had been one of the Group of Seven’s more vibrant economies earlier last decade, expanding at a 2.7% pace over the period’s first eight years […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Commodity-Sensitive Currencies and Sterling Strengthened
March 30, 2010
The U.S. dollar lost 0.9%, 0.5%, and 0.4% against its Canadian, New Zealand and Australian counterparts. The greenback also fell 0.7% against sterling but is otherwise steady, showing a 0.1% uptick against the yen, no change relative to the Swiss franc, and a 0.1% dip against the euro. The Nikkei advanced 1.0% and closed above […] More
Deeper Analysis
Euroland’s Recovery Not Fading Away
March 29, 2010
The oft-repeated view of the ECB Governing Council is that a recovery from a severe economic contraction remains “on track” but that such will be “moderate,” “uneven,” and “uncertain.” Those adjectives imply an upturn that 1) will be weaker than the growth of aggregate supply, 2) will not shared by every EMU country or equally […] More
