Central Bank Watch
New Zealand Reserve Bank Signals Onset of Rate Increased to Occur Around Mid-2010
January 27, 2010
As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand retained a 2.5% cash rate. It’s key policy rate has been at that level since the end of April 2009. Seven reductions totaling 575 basis points were implemented between July 2008 and then, starting with a cut of 25 bps in July 2008 and followed by a […] More
Central Bank Watch
Brazil Monetary Policy Left Unchanged
January 27, 2010
Brazil’s monetary policy committee, known as COPOM, left the Selic Rate at 8.75%, where such has been for the past six months. In the previous six-month period, by contrast, five rate cuts totaling 500 basis points were implemented: 100 bps each in January, April and June, 150 bps last March and a final decrease of […] More
Central Bank Watch
A Less Dovish FOMC Statement
January 27, 2010
The FOMC statement was less dovish than earlier ones in several respects. Less confidence was expressed that inflation would remain subdued. The committee now says substantial resource slack is continuing to restrain cost pressures and that inflation is likely to be subdued for some time; before it had said substantial resource slack is likely to […] More
Larry's Blog
President Obama’s Challenge
January 27, 2010
Political pundits have defined tonight’s State of the Union address as a critical moment in U.S. politics. Will voter support for what looks like a one-term presidency continue to get trimmed, or will the government be born again after an inspiring redefinition of its mission? One learns to never say either never or always in […] More
Central Bank Watch
FOMC Preview
January 27, 2010
More anxiety exists now about the sustainability of the global and U.S. economic recoveries than when the FOMC met previously on December 16, so this is not the time to tinker with the basic thrust of monetary policy, which was summarized in the first sentence of the third paragraph of the last statement: The Committee […] More
Central Bank Watch
Iceland’s Central Bank Eases Somewhat Unexpectedly
January 27, 2010
Much of the statement released by the Central Bank of Iceland after a 50-basis point cut in key interest rates is devoted to the ongoing debt dispute and uncertainty over the country’s future access to foreign capital markets. The debt crisis took a turn for the worse when Iceland’s president recently vetoed Icesave legislation on […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Awaiting FOMC Statement and Obama’s State of the Union Speech
January 27, 2010
With attention on the FOMC and tonight’s address from President Obama, stocks fell further and the dollar is mixed. Equities lost 2.9% in India, 1.6% in Thailand and Australia, 1.4% in China, 1.2% in Singapore, 0.7% in South Korea and Japan, and 0.5% in Indonesia and Taiwan. In Europe, the Paris Cac, British Footsie, and […] More
Deeper Analysis
The Deep British Economic Slump
January 26, 2010
U.K. real GDP only edged 0.1% higher on a strict fourth quarter-over-third quarter basis not annualized, according to the advanced report on the national income accounts. It was the first quarter of positive growth since the first quarter of 2008 but compared unfavorably to street expectations of a 0.4% increase. The last eight quarters depict […] More
Central Bank Watch
Polish 3.5% Central Bank Reference Rate Left Unchanged
January 26, 2010
Narodowy Bank’s interest rates has been at 3.5% since mid-2009 and will remain at that level. As with other central bank rate announcements today, this was the expected outcome. Growth is improving, and CPI inflation of 3.5% in the year to December is at the upper end of the central bank’s 1.5 – 3.5% target […] More
Central Bank Watch
South African Reserve Bank Keeps 7.0%Repo Rate As Forecast
January 26, 2010
A statement from South Africa’s central bank looks for sustained in-target CPI inflation from this March through end-2011 with evenly balanced risks. Positive growth resumed in the third quarter, but GDP remains below year-earlier levels. CPI inflation decelerated from 6.1% in September to 5.8% in November, and producer prices have been lower than a year […] More
