Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
November 6, 2009
The week ahead begins with a meeting of G-20 finance ministers in Scotland, gets interrupted on Wednesday with holidays in the United States (Veterans Day) and Canada (Remembrance Day) and winds up on Friday the 13th. Only two central bank meetings of note are scheduled — in Korea and Chile — but the Bank of […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Weekly Foreign Exchange Insights: November 6th
November 6, 2009
The deep recession last year and this produced a perverse inverse correlation between the dollar and the tone of economic news. When conditions were bleakest, haven-seeking capital inflows lent unexpected support to the U.S. currency. This relationship appears to hold only in extreme circumstances and is unlikely to resume if economic recovery is merely slow […] More
How High Will U.S. Unemployment Go?
November 6, 2009
Leaving aside the unexpected 0.4 percentage point (ppt) increase in the jobless rate to 10.2%, the U.S. monthly labor statistics had several encouraging aspects. Nonfarm payroll jobs dropped 188 thousand in October compared to average declines of 226K in 3Q, 428K in 2Q and 691K in the first quarter of 2009. That’s an extremely significant […] More
Canadian Labor Market Takes a Step Backward
November 6, 2009
Canada reported significantly worse-than-projected October labor market figures ninety minutes ahead of the highly anticipated U.S. labor force survey. The two data series tend not to dovetail exactly, but the Canadian figures are a reminder that all economies face a bumpy return to positive growth and, in most cases, atypically weak growth in the initial […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
New Overnight Developments Abroad: Anticipating A Smaller Drop in U.S. Jobs
November 6, 2009
Markets are positioned for a less dire labor market report from the United States due at 13:30 GMT. Forecasts center on a 175K decline of jobs in October and a 9.9% unemployment rate. In the meantime, Canada reported worse-than-forecast labor statistics for last month. Jobs, which had been expected to climb 10K on top of […] More
Central Bank Watch
Peru Monetary Policy Unchanged
November 6, 2009
The Central Reserve Bank of Peru left the monetary reference rate unchanged at 1.25% for a third straight month and released a statement that saw no evidence of inflationary pressure, predicted sub-target inflation during coming months, and indicated that the key rate is unlikely to get changed in the near term. A recovery is starting […] More
