Next Week

September 25, 2009

The week to October 2nd includes Germany’s national election on Sunday, Yom Kippur observances on Monday, central bank policy meetings in The Philippines, Romania, Poland, and Hungary, and an eight-day National Holiday in China beginning Thursday commemorating the sixtieth anniversary of the communist revolution.  The ECB will be doing another long-dated 12-month repo, and the period overlaps quarter-end.  September 30th also ends the first half of Japan’s fiscal year, the lead up to which can be associated with extra capital inflows as corporations repatriate overseas earnings.  The list of Fed and ECB officials with speaking engagements next week is heavy, including Bernanke, Kohn, Lockhart twice, Plossner and Fisher from the Fed and Trichet twice, Papademos, Weber, and Noyer from the ECB.

The week ahead, like others that overlap a month-end has a very thick schedule of data releases.  Starting with the United States, investors will be sifting through the monthly labor force survey, the Dallas Fed index, auto sales, consumer confidence, household spending and income, mid-western and national manufacturing PMIs, construction spending, pending home sales, the Case-Shiller house price index, ADP private employment, revised GDP, and factory orders.  There are also the usual weekly figures for money and credit, chain store sales, jobless claims, energy stocks, and consumer confidence.

Japan releases consumer prices, industrial production, housing starts, construction orders, retail sales, unemployment, wages, auto sales, household spending and income, the manufacturing PMI, and the Shoko Chukin index.  But towering over these monthly numbers in importance will be the quarterly Bank of Japan corporate survey, also known as the Tankan.

Euroland reports its final manufacturing PMI readings and overall economic sentiment and its business, industrial, retail, and consumer components.  Consumer prices, producer prices and unemployment figures also arrive for the common currency bloc.  There will be PMI reports from numerous individual countries throughout Continental Europe.  Germany reports import prices, consumer sentiment, retail sales, labor statistics and consumer prices.  French and Italian producer prices are due.  So are consumer price reports in Spain, Belgium, and Italy.  Italy also releases consumer and business confidence measures.

The British calendar has house prices from Hometrack, Halifax and Nationwide, plus the final second-quarter GDP report with current account figures too.  The U.K. factory PMI, consumer confidence, mortgage approvals, consumer credit, M4 growth and CBI retail-sector monthly survey arrive as well.  Sweden and Norway will be releasing retail sales, and the UBS Swiss consumption indicator is due along with Swiss leading economic indicators.

Canada releases monthly GDP, which includes a measure of industrial production.  Canadian producer prices also arrive.  From Australia, we get building approvals and private sector credit.  New Zealand releases business sentiment and building permits.  India and Russia announce current account statistics, while South Africa reports auto sales, trade figures and its purchasing managers index.  Brazilian trade figures and industrial production numbers are due.

Several indicators will be released in emerging Asia, including Hong Kong retail sales, trade figures from South Korea, Indonesia, and Thailand, and industrial production in South Korea and Thailand.

Hungary and Romania report producer prices, and Poland announces its current account.

Copyright Larry Greenberg 2009.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.

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