Larry's Blog
The Fall And Stabilization of Exports: Fact or Fancy
May 27, 2009
At the height of the global recession, seasonally adjusted merchandise exports fell between October and January at annualized rates of 77.0% in Japan, 61.9% in the United States, and 60.4% in Germany. Over the prior three months to October 2008, exports had tumbled 43.4% annualized in United States and by 40.1% in Japan, but they […] More
Central Bank Watch
National Bank of Poland Cuts Reserve Requirements
May 27, 2009
Polish monetary officials left their key interest rate at 3.75% as was expected but took a different easing step of reducing reserve requirements from 3.5% to 3.0%. Interest rates also were left unchanged at April’s policy meeting. Earlier cuts of 25 basis points each were announced last November 26, February 25 and March 25 and […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
New Overnight Developments Abroad: Sterling Above $1.6000
May 27, 2009
The dollar fell 0.6% against the pound to $1.6029, the first time since November that sterling has traded above $1.60. The Chinese yuan softened to its weakest level since April 14 ahead of Geithner’s visit to China. The dollar also lost 0.5% to an 8-month low against the Canadian dollar, which has been buoyed by […] More
Currency Markets in the News
German and Japanese GDP Growth Similarities and Differences
May 26, 2009
German and Japanese real GDP plunged at seasonally adjusted annualized rates (saar) of 11.5% and 14.8% during the half-year between 3Q08 and 1Q09. These are the largest economies in Europe and Asia, and they experienced similar declines in business investment — 36.5% saar in Germany and 30.0% saar in Japan. Exports comprised the other area […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank Negara Malaysia Keeps 2.0% Key Interest Rate
May 26, 2009
Malaysia’s central retained a 2.0% overnight policy rate just as it did after the prior policy meeting on April 29th. The rate previously was cut by 25 basis points in November, 75 bps in January and 50 bps in February. A released statement projects that positive growth will resume in the second half of this […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
New Overnight Developments: Risk Aversion Is Back
May 26, 2009
There’s been a big rise of the dollar and a big decline in stocks on two factors: 1) North Korea firing two more short-range missiles and 2) heightened jitters about German banks. Stocks fell 2.1% in South Korea, 2.3% in India, 1.8% in Indonesia, 1.4% in Thailand, 1.2% in China, 0.8% in Hong Kong and […] More
Central Bank Watch
Israeli Central Bank Rate To Remain at 0.5%
May 25, 2009
The Bank of Israel left monetary unchanged as expected, having earlier cut its key rate from 4.25% at the start of October to 0.5% late in the first quarter. Monetary officials also are continuing to buy government bonds and dollars to promote liquidity and contain any upward drift in long-term interest rates. A statement from […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
New Overnight Developments Abroad: Surprise North Korean Nuclear and Missile Test
May 25, 2009
Western leaders have condemned North Korea’s first nuclear test in almost three years. The surprise action has depressed the Australian and New Zealand currencies by 0.4% and the yen by 0.3% against the U.S. dollar. The greenback also advanced 0.6% against the Canadian dollar and 0.3% versus sterling, but it is unchanged against the euro […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
May 23, 2009
A busy week lies ahead despite closures Monday in the U.S. for Memorial Day and U.K. for a spring bank holiday. China and Taiwan will be closed Thursday and Friday for the Dragon Boat Festival, China’s oldest holiday. Interest rate meetings are scheduled in Poland, Hungary, Israel, South Africa, Malaysia, The Philippines, and Colombia. Policy […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Weekly Foreign Exchange Insights: May 22nd
May 22, 2009
Dollar karma has deteriorated sharply since the last Insights piece two weeks ago. The U.S. currency lost more than 4.0% this past week against many currencies, including the pound, euro, and several commodity-sensitive units. More importantly, market chatter is warning of a potential large depreciation, and the dollar has dropped in spite of wobbly equity […] More
