U.S. Retains Advantage Over Euro Area in Factory PMI Comparison
April 1, 2009
| Mf’g PMI’s | United States | Euroland | Spread | EUR/USD |
| Feb 2008 | 48.8 | 52.3 | -3.5 | 1.475 |
| March | 49.0 | 52.0 | -3.0 | 1.553 |
| April | 48.6 | 50.7 | -2.1 | 1.574 |
| May | 49.3 | 50.6 | -1.3 | 1.555 |
| June | 49.5 | 49.2 | +0.3 | 1.557 |
| July | 49.5 | 47.4 | +2.1 | 1.577 |
| August | 49.3 | 47.6 | +1.7 | 1.497 |
| September | 43.4 | 45.0 | -1.6 | 1.437 |
| October | 38.7 | 41.1 | -2.4 | 1.331 |
| November | 36.6 | 35.6 | +1.0 | 1.268 |
| December | 32.9 | 33.9 | -1.0 | 1.351 |
| Jan 2009 | 35.6 | 34.4 | +1.2 | 1.326 |
| Feb 2009 | 35.8 | 33.5 | +2.3 | 1.303 |
| Mar 2009 | 36.3 | 33.9 | +2.4 | 1.306 |
The differential between the manufacturing purchasing indices of the United States and Euroland remained roughly steady in March after shifting by almost five percentage points between October and February. The advantage currently belongs to the United States in spite of the dollar’s more than 20% appreciation against the euro since July. It’s possible that this potential headwind may push the factory PMI spread closer to zero if not into the red again. But for now, these figures reflect the comparatively greater and more timely monetary and fiscal stimulus that was implemented in the United States but not matched in Europe.
Copyright 2009 Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
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