U.S. Retains Advantage Over Euro Area in Factory PMI Comparison

April 1, 2009

Mf’g PMI’s United States Euroland Spread EUR/USD
Feb 2008 48.8 52.3 -3.5 1.475
March 49.0 52.0 -3.0 1.553
April 48.6 50.7 -2.1 1.574
May 49.3 50.6 -1.3 1.555
June 49.5 49.2 +0.3 1.557
July 49.5 47.4 +2.1 1.577
August 49.3 47.6 +1.7 1.497
September 43.4 45.0 -1.6 1.437
October 38.7 41.1 -2.4 1.331
November 36.6 35.6 +1.0 1.268
December 32.9 33.9 -1.0 1.351
Jan 2009 35.6 34.4 +1.2 1.326
Feb 2009 35.8 33.5 +2.3 1.303
Mar 2009 36.3 33.9 +2.4 1.306

 

The differential between the manufacturing purchasing indices of the United States and Euroland remained roughly steady in March after shifting by almost five percentage points between October and February.  The advantage currently belongs to the United States in spite of the dollar’s more than 20% appreciation against the euro since July.  It’s possible that this potential headwind may push the factory PMI spread closer to zero if not into the red again.  But for now, these figures reflect the comparatively greater and more timely monetary and fiscal stimulus that was implemented in the United States but not matched in Europe.

Copyright 2009 Larry Greenberg.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.

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