Worst Global Economy Since WW2

January 28, 2009

New forecasts from the IMF call for world growth of only 0.5% in 2009, down from 3.4% in 2008 and 5.2% in 2007.  Growth has never been as low as a half percent in a calendar year since the Second World War.  0.5% represents a revision from 2.2% projected by the IMF in November.  The revision to U.S. growth of negative 0.9 percentage points (ppts) was less than half as much as that of negative 2.4 ppts in the case of Japan.  Projected growth in the euro area was trimmed by 1.7 ppts.  Downward revisions of more than three percentage points were made for “other advanced economies,” Asian Newly Industrialized Economies (Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea), and what remains of the old Soviet Union.  New calendar year growth rates are shown below.

 

  2007 2008 2009 2010
World 5.2% 3.4% 0.5% 3.0%
Advanced 2.7% 1.0% -2.0% 1.1%
Emerging/Developing 8.3% 6.3% 3.3% 5.0%
U.S. 2.0% 1.0% -1.6% 1.6%
Canada 2.7% 0.6% -1.2% 1.6%
Other W. Hemisphere 5.7% 4.6% 1.1% 3.0%
Euroland 2.6% 1.0% -2.0% 0.2%
Japan 2.4% -0.3% -2.6% 0.6%
Britain 3.0% 0.7% -2.8% 0.2%
China 13.0% 9.0% 6.7% 8.0%
India 9.3% 7.3% 5.1% 6.5%
Russia 8.1% 6.2% -0.7% 1.3%
Brazil 5.7% 5.8% 1.8% 3.5%

 

Copyright 2009 Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.

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