U.S./Canadian Labor Figures and German Industrial Orders All Terrible
December 5, 2008
Canadian jobs tumbled 70.6K last month, their biggest drop in 317 months. A decrease of that amount is akin to a decline of 561K in the U.S. labor market. On-year employment growth fell below 1% to 0.8%. Job declines were divided fairly evenly between full-time and part-time workers (the latter reflecting the loss of election aids) and between manufacturing and services. Private-sector employees climbed just 0.5% y/y, similar to their weak 0.4% gain in the previous statement year to November 2007. But total jobs in the year to November 2007 had risen by a robust 2.2%. Average hourly wage inflation accelerated to 4.6%. Many more months of weak labor market statistics are likely.
U.S. nonfarm payroll jobs fell by 419K per month in the three months to November compared to just 98K per month in the three months to August. Jobs declines also accelerated to 258K per month in the six months to November from 67K per month in the six months to last May. Jobs dropped 533K in November alone, most in 407 months. America had a 6.7% jobless rate, 0.4 percentage points (ppts) higher than Canada’s. Average hourly wages rose 3.7% in the year to November, 0.9 ppts less than Canada. The level of U.S. employment was its lowest since mid-2006.
German industrial orders, which fell 14.9% saar during 3Q08, posted a further 6.1% decline in October and was 17.3% below its October 2007 level. Foreign orders fell 6.2% and were 12.6% below their 3Q mean level. Foreign orders for capital goods dropped 14.3% in September and by a further 9.9% in October.
Analysts in each of these economies are feeling that things could hardly be worse until they see what’s happening in other economies.
Tags: Canadian Dollar, Dollar, Euro
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