Archive for August 2008

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Weekly Foreign Exchange Insights: August 29th

August 29, 2008

The dollar appreciated across the board during August, even against the yuan in China’s Olympic-hosting month.  However, dollar gains were not uniform in the month.  At 15:00 GMT today, the buck was showing a net rise against the yen since end-July of merely 0.6% but robust advances of 9.5% against the Australian dollar, 8.7% relative […] More

Slightly Softer Canadian Growth Than Bank of Canada Expected

August 29, 2008

Canadian GDP rose 0.3% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (saar) in 2Q08 versus the central bank’s assumption last month of an 0.8% increase, and first-quarter growth was revised to negative 0.8% from negative 0.3% reported three months ago.  As a result, on-year growth slid to merely 0.7% from 1.6% in 1Q08 and 2.8% in […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

New Overnight Developments Abroad: Deluge of Data as August Ends

August 29, 2008

The yen rose 0.7% against a softer dollar.  The dollar also lost 0.4% against the kiwi and 0.2% against the euro, Swiss franc, and Canadian dollar.  Sterling is unchanged against the dollar, while the Australian dollar edged 0.1% higher. The Nikkei leaped 2.4% but still lost 5.2% in the month of August. Other equity markets […] More

Currency Markets in the News

A Big Say From Central Bankers But Not the Final Say

August 28, 2008

Currency movement is driven not merely by shifts in relative growth, but as the preceding post suggests, by the reaction of monetary policymakers to that growth.  Weakening growth in Europe has not been met by an ECB cave-in.  There was only one rate change in Euroland since the global credit crunch began, and that move […] More

Currency Markets in the News

Growth Trends Justify Dollar's Summer Correction

August 28, 2008

U.S. growth of 3.3% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (saar) last quarter towered above annualized growth of 0.2% saar in Britain, -0.8% saar in the euro area and -2.4% saar in Japan.  The biggest growth thrust came from net exports, which accounted for more than 93% of the rise in GDP, a sign that […] More

Widest Canadian Current Account Surplus in Nine Quarters

August 28, 2008

The C$ 6.758 billion current account surplus in the second quarter equaled roughly 1.7% of GDP, a tenth more than I expected despite a downward revision to the first-quarter surplus, which was 20% smaller than reported initially.  This improvement reflected higher export commodity prices.  Merchandise exports actually fell pretty significantly.  The current account surplus had […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

New Overnight Developments Abroad: Dollar Down For Second Straight Day

August 28, 2008

The U.S. dollar lost 0.9% against the Aussie dollar, 0.5% against the kiwi and Swiss franc, 0.4% against the euro, 0.3% versus the yen and 0.1% relative to the Canadian dollar.  The Nikkei and Ftse are up 0.1%.  The Dax and Paris Cac eased by 0.3% and 0.1%.  Bigger stock price changes occurred in Hong […] More

Anticipating a Return to Positive Canadian Growth and a Bigger External Surplus

August 27, 2008

The second-quarter current account will be reported Thursday at 08:30 EDT (12:30 GMT) followed at the same time but on Friday by quarterly national income account statistics and June monthly GDP.  Higher commodity export prices especially of energy generated a swift recovery of the current account surplus from less than 0.5% of GDP in the […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

New Overnight Developments Abroad: Oil Firmer and Dollar Lower

August 27, 2008

The dollar fell 0.8% against the Australian dollar, 0.7% relative to the yen, euro and kiwi, 0.5% against sterling and 0.3% against the Canadian dollar and Swiss franc.  Higher commodity prices and some hawkish remarks by ECB officials lie behind this setback. Oil (up 1.0% to $117.55 per barrel) and gold (+1.1% to $838.8 per […] More

The Dollar If McCain Wins

August 26, 2008

It’s hard to pick up a newspaper these days without finding an article on Obama’s vulnerability in the November election.  That’s a bad sign for the Democrats, especially since articles about McCain’s vulnerability are not so prevalent.  Press hype is often grounded in fact but nonetheless has a way of magnifying the momentum.  With Labor […] More

css.php