Archive for July 2008

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Foreign Exchange Insights

July 31, 2008

The foundation of a dollar correction dried further during July.  Based on quotes at 15:35 GMT on the 31st, the dollar was higher across the board for the month against the Australian dollar (+7.1%), New Zealand dollar (+3.6%), Swiss franc (+2.6%), Japanese yen (+1.8%), euro (1.0%), British pound (+0.6%) and Canadian dollar (+0.4%).  In addition, […] More

Canadian GDP Barely Crawling

July 31, 2008

Monthly real GDP, calculated from the supply side, edged unexpectedly 0.1% lower in May, the third negative growth reading in the last four reported months.  GDP rose only 0.6% between May 2007 and May 2008, a year during which industrial production slumped 4.6% including a 2.7% drop in energy output.  Construction slipped for a third […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

New Developments Abroad: Weakest U.K. Consumer Confidence Since at Least 1974

July 31, 2008

The euro recovered 0.2%, rising back above $1.5600. The dollar is otherwise narrowly mixed — up 0.1% against the yen and sterling but off 0.1% against the C-dollar and A-dollar.  The Swissy is unchanged. Oil slid 0.7% to $125.85/barrel after Wednesday’s sharp advance.  Gold firmed 0.8% to $919.90/ounce. Equities sank another 2.7% in China but […] More

Currency Markets in the News

Japanese Industrial Production: Three Straight Drops Likely

July 30, 2008

Industrial output in the world’s second largest economy recorded identical 0.7% quarterly declines in 1Q08 and 2Q08.  The second quarter ended limply, with production dropping 2.0% m/m in June and eking out a 12-month increase of just 0.2%.  Every month, Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry releases forecasts of industrial production in the coming […] More

Oil

Bastille Day Oil Price Coincidence

July 30, 2008

Some dispute exists over the date and level of the latest and all-time record high in oil prices.  One camp cites $147.27 on July 11th, but another view puts the peak at $147.91 per barrel on July 14th.  Coincidentally, Bastille Day in 2006 saw oil prices crest at of $78.40, a record high that stood […] More

Canadian Producer Prices Dissected

July 30, 2008

Producer price inflation in June stemmed entirely from either higher oil prices or a softer Canadian dollar.  Total producer prices went up 1.3% between May and June.  0.7 percentage points of that increase was attributable to oil and coal, which increased 6.1%, and another 0.5 ppts stemmed from C-dollar depreciation.  PPI inflation in the year […] More

Currency Markets in the News

Previewing Euroland Producer Prices in June

July 30, 2008

Producer prices advanced 7.1% in the year to May, the most since such data began to be collected in 1990.  June figures, which get released on Monday at 10:00 GMT, will show an even higher on-year PPI inflation rate of about 7.8% despite a lower monthly increase than May’s 1.2%.  I expect a 0.8% monthly […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

New Developments Abroad: Biggest Tumble in Euroland Sentiment Since October 2001

July 30, 2008

Overnight changes in the dollar are mixed.  Its greatest drop was against sterling (-0.5%), but gains were posted of 0.6% against the Aussie dollar and 0.5% against the kiwi.  The dollar slid 0.2% against the yen and by 0.1% versus the Canadian dollar but firmed 0.1% relative to the Swiss franc. EUR/USD unchanged. The ten-year […] More

Uncategorized

Universality of Higher Inflation

July 29, 2008

In the year since the financial market crisis surfaced, on-year rates of inflation have changed more drastically than on-year rates of GDP growth.  The United States, Euroland, Japan, Australia and Sweden have experienced similar advances in inflation ranging between 2.1 percentage points and 2.4 ppts.  British inflation accelerated by 1.4 percentage points.  Canadian inflation increased […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

New Developments Abroad: Stocks Take Another Tumble

July 29, 2008

Equities fell in Asia and Europe.  Japan -1.5%. China -1.9%. Taiwan -3.0%. India -3.9%. Korea -2.0%. Thailand -1.3%. Hong Kong -1.9%. Germany -1.2%. France -1.5%. Britain -0.5%. Australian -1.5%. The dollar firmed 0.3% against the pound, 0.2% relative to the yen and 0.1% versus the euro, C-dollar and Swissy.  Largest rise (0.6%) posted against the […] More

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