Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Foreign Exchange Insights
July 31, 2008
The foundation of a dollar correction dried further during July. Based on quotes at 15:35 GMT on the 31st, the dollar was higher across the board for the month against the Australian dollar (+7.1%), New Zealand dollar (+3.6%), Swiss franc (+2.6%), Japanese yen (+1.8%), euro (1.0%), British pound (+0.6%) and Canadian dollar (+0.4%). In addition, [...] More
Canadian GDP Barely Crawling
July 31, 2008
Monthly real GDP, calculated from the supply side, edged unexpectedly 0.1% lower in May, the third negative growth reading in the last four reported months. GDP rose only 0.6% between May 2007 and May 2008, a year during which industrial production slumped 4.6% including a 2.7% drop in energy output. Construction slipped for a third [...] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
New Developments Abroad: Weakest U.K. Consumer Confidence Since at Least 1974
July 31, 2008
The euro recovered 0.2%, rising back above $1.5600. The dollar is otherwise narrowly mixed — up 0.1% against the yen and sterling but off 0.1% against the C-dollar and A-dollar. The Swissy is unchanged. Oil slid 0.7% to $125.85/barrel after Wednesday’s sharp advance. Gold firmed 0.8% to $919.90/ounce. Equities sank another 2.7% in China but rose 1.2% [...] More
Currency Markets in the News
Japanese Industrial Production: Three Straight Drops Likely
July 30, 2008
Industrial output in the world’s second largest economy recorded identical 0.7% quarterly declines in 1Q08 and 2Q08. The second quarter ended limply, with production dropping 2.0% m/m in June and eking out a 12-month increase of just 0.2%. Every month, Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry releases forecasts of industrial production in the coming [...] More
Oil
Bastille Day Oil Price Coincidence
July 30, 2008
Some dispute exists over the date and level of the latest and all-time record high in oil prices. One camp cites $147.27 on July 11th, but another view puts the peak at $147.91 per barrel on July 14th. Coincidentally, Bastille Day in 2006 saw oil prices crest at of $78.40, a record high that stood [...] More
Canadian Producer Prices Dissected
July 30, 2008
Producer price inflation in June stemmed entirely from either higher oil prices or a softer Canadian dollar. Total producer prices went up 1.3% between May and June. 0.7 percentage points of that increase was attributable to oil and coal, which increased 6.1%, and another 0.5 ppts stemmed from C-dollar depreciation. PPI inflation in the year [...] More
Currency Markets in the News
Previewing Euroland Producer Prices in June
July 30, 2008
Producer prices advanced 7.1% in the year to May, the most since such data began to be collected in 1990. June figures, which get released on Monday at 10:00 GMT, will show an even higher on-year PPI inflation rate of about 7.8% despite a lower monthly increase than May’s 1.2%. I expect a 0.8% monthly [...] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
New Developments Abroad: Biggest Tumble in Euroland Sentiment Since October 2001
July 30, 2008
Overnight changes in the dollar are mixed. Its greatest drop was against sterling (-0.5%), but gains were posted of 0.6% against the Aussie dollar and 0.5% against the kiwi. The dollar slid 0.2% against the yen and by 0.1% versus the Canadian dollar but firmed 0.1% relative to the Swiss franc. EUR/USD unchanged. The ten-year JGB [...] More
Uncategorized
Universality of Higher Inflation
July 29, 2008
In the year since the financial market crisis surfaced, on-year rates of inflation have changed more drastically than on-year rates of GDP growth. The United States, Euroland, Japan, Australia and Sweden have experienced similar advances in inflation ranging between 2.1 percentage points and 2.4 ppts. British inflation accelerated by 1.4 percentage points. Canadian inflation increased [...] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
New Developments Abroad: Stocks Take Another Tumble
July 29, 2008
Equities fell in Asia and Europe. Japan -1.5%. China -1.9%. Taiwan -3.0%. India -3.9%. Korea -2.0%. Thailand -1.3%. Hong Kong -1.9%. Germany -1.2%. France -1.5%. Britain -0.5%. Australian -1.5%. The dollar firmed 0.3% against the pound, 0.2% relative to the yen and 0.1% versus the euro, C-dollar and Swissy. Largest rise (0.6%) posted against the kiwi. The [...] More
