Larry's Blog
U.S. Jobless Claims on Sub-Recessionary Plateau
May 23, 2008
During previous U.S. recessions, new jobless claims have routinely surpassed 400,000 per week. They averaged 372.25K in the four weeks to May 17th, similar to means of 369.5K in the previous four weeks to April 19th and 374.75K during the four weeks to March 22nd. They may yet build up to a higher level, and […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Foreign Exchange Insights
May 23, 2008
The global economy needed this past week’s 5.6% additional rise in oil prices like a whole in the head. The threat of a recession induced by inflation creates a more difficult task for policymakers than a downturn caused by a banking crisis. By answering the first challenge, moveover, the Fed has little left in the […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
New Developments Abroad
May 23, 2008
The dollar fell 0.5% against the yen and Aussie dollar. It’s down 0.2% against the Swissy and -0.1% relative to the kiwi but unchanged against the euro, sterling and yuan. Bond yields are sharply higher on inflation fears. Ten-year JGB yields hit a 9 month high and is up 4.5 bps net at 1.695%. Asian […] More
