April 25, 2024
U.S. stock futures were down 0.5-1.0% just ahead of the release of U.S. first-quarter GDP. The data were expected to show strong enough and persistent demand to make Federal Reserve officials hesitant to cut interest rates. Elsewhere, a two-day meeting of the Bank of Japan began today, which while not expected to result in a […] Read Article
April 20, 2024
Central Banks: Monetary policies of China, Hungary, Japan, Russia, Turkey and Indonesia are being reviews. Bank of Japan will be publishing Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices. BOJ Governor Ueda holds a press conference. Other central bank officials speaking publicly next week include Swiss National Bank President Jordan; European Central Bank President Lagarde and VP […] Read Article
April 25, 2024
The National Bank of Ukraine‘s policy interest rate was cut to 13.5% from 14.5%, having previously been reduced by 50 basis points in March and 10 percentage points in the second half of 2023. From June 2022 to July 2023, the rate had been held at 25.0%. A statement from the NBU explained that today’s […] Read Article
March 31, 2024
The dollar, ten-year sovereign debt yields, and equities and commodity prices rose in the first quarter. The Swiss National Bank became the first major developed economy central bank to lower interest rates in this cycle, and the Bank of Japan became the last to abandon a negative short-term interest rate. The Fed pushed out the […] Read Article
April 24, 2024
A recent concern had been that delayed Fed easing would particularly hurt coming earnings in the tech sector, but first quarter earnings have exceeded expectations. Tesla’s share price leaped over 10% in after-hours trading yesterday, and the Nasdaq futures shows a 0.7% overnight advance at this moment. Asian equities closed up 2.4% in Japan, 2.0% […] More
April 23, 2024
After 23 games, the N.Y. Yankees have fallen out of first place in their division for the first time. It’s still early times, with roughly seven-eighths of the regular season yet to be played, and the team’s overall 15-8 record is more than respectable. The pitching staff is outperforming expectations and is one of only […] More
April 23, 2024
The Central Bank of Hungary’s base rate has been lowered 50 basis points to 7.75% in a continuing normalization of monetary policy. The latest and expected reduction brings the cumulative decreases to 300 basis points since end-2024 and 525 basis points since October. Consumer price inflation in Hungary has receded from as much as 25.7% […] More
April 23, 2024
Net overnight movements in the dollar were marginal. Ten-year sovereign debt yields increased six basis points in the U.K., five basis points in Italy and by four basis points in the United States, Germany, France and Spain. Continuing disappointment at the Chinese government’s macroeconomic stimulus was reflected in an additional 0.7% drop in the Shanghai […] More
April 22, 2024
The International Monetary Fund gave a thumbs down to the growing consideration by Japanese officials of implementing currency market operations to blunt yen weakness. Japan’s currency is hovering at its weakest levels against the dollar since 1990, and Japanese CPI inflation has exceeded the 2.0% central bank target since April 2022. Nonetheless, the IMF warns […] More
April 19, 2024
As promised, Israel responded to Iran’s prior missile attack, but the retaliation thus far has been tempered — just a few drone attacks against an Iranian military base near Isfahan that were shot down. Damages were light, and neither Israeli nor Iranian media are fanning the incident, which provoked initial financial confusion that helped depress […] More
April 17, 2024
The dollar and U.S. equities are little changed this Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei-225 index closed down 1.3%, but share prices rose 2.1% in China and 1.6% in Taiwan. European stocks are up, too. Bitcoin’s price plunged 4.4% overnight, extending its drop over the past five weeks to 17%. WTI oil is down 1.2%, but gold is […] More
April 16, 2024
The mounting relief late in 2023 and early this year that monetary easing happens sooner rather than later has largely dissipated in the face of uncooperative data. To be sure, economic data rarely move in a strictly linear fashion, and monetary policies are guided not by single points of data but rather on the basis […] More
April 15, 2024
The dominant theme of the first half of April has been the retreat in hopes that a cycle of Fed interest rate cuts might commence as early as June. This shift is being driven by data pointing to stalled U.S. disinflation and stronger-than-assumed economic growth. Monday’s menu of U.S. data includes Stronger-than-expected retail sales that […] More
April 13, 2024
Central Banks: The Federal Reserve Beige Book of recent regional economic conditions will be published, and a slew of Fed officials have public speaking opportunities including Goolsbee, Williams, Bostic, Mester, Daly and Logan. Lane, Schnaebel and Guindos of the European Central Bank and Bailey, Haskel, Breeden, and Ramsden of the Bank of England will be […] More
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